1. No BlowāOff Top = Less Downside Pressure
Pompliano noted that Bitcoin didnāt experience an extreme parabolic rally late in the year, meaning there wasnāt a euphoric āblowāoffā peak that typically precedes major corrections. In past cycles, sharp spikes often lead to equally sharp drawdowns ā...
What Happened
Matador Technologies, a publicly traded Canadian Bitcoin financial services firm, has received regulatory approval to raise up to CADāÆ80āÆmillion (~$58.4āÆmillion USD) through a share sale and related securities. The approval comes from the Ontario Securities Commission, which allows...
š Coinbase Inflows Have Collapsed
The 7āday cumulative inflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum into Coinbase ā often seen as a proxy for U.S. institutional and retail buying pressure ā have dropped sharply, reflecting a contraction of more than 60% compared to late November levels.
This suggests...
Asia Market Open ā Crypto, Stocks, and Gold
Bitcoin Weakness
BTC is slipping in early Asian trading, likely reflecting profit-taking and short-term caution ahead of macro data and options expiries.
Despite recent gains, crypto remains sensitive to risk sentiment and dollar movements, and...
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Weakening Momentum
Current Trend
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing further signs of weakness, failing to hold recent support levels.
Sellers appear to have short-term control, putting additional downside risk on the table.
Technical Indicators
Support levels: BTC is approaching...
Bitcoin Price Range & Options Expiry
Current Price Action
Bitcoin (BTC) is reportedly trading in a narrow range between $85,000 and $90,000.
This consolidation suggests a balance between bullish and bearish forces, with neither side able to decisively push price higher or lower in the short...
š Bitcoin Didnāt Truly Hit $100K in InflationāAdjusted Terms
Although Bitcoinās nominal price (the raw exchange price) rose above ~$126,000 this year, when you adjust for U.S. inflation back to 2020 purchasingāpower dollars, it never actually crossed the $100,000 mark.
Thorn and others note...
š» Bearish Forecast: $50K Bitcoin Before Bottom
Some technical analysts argue Bitcoin hasnāt finished its corrective phase and could see significant downside before a durable bottom is established:
š Technical Bear Case
A recent analysis by TradingShot suggests BTCās current price structure is...
š Range Bound ā Whatās the Current Setup?
š Tight Sideways Trading
Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range, roughly between about $87,000 and $90,000+, failing to build sustained momentum either higher or lower. Traders repeatedly test the same support and resistance levels without real...
š 1ļøā£ BTC Netflows to Exchanges
Observation: Netflows show increased BTC deposits to exchanges recently.
Implication: More BTC on exchanges can indicate selling pressure, as holders may be preparing to exit positions, which historically precedes short-term downtrends.
š 2ļøā£ Miner Behavior...
š IMF Acknowledges Strong Growth
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has publicly recognized that El Salvadorās economy expanded faster than expected, projecting about 4āÆ% real GDP growth in 2025. The IMF cited factors such as robust remittances, improved investor confidence and stronger...
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š Bitcoin Inflows Slow Significantly
According to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of onāchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoinās onāchain capital inflows ā measured via realized capitalization ā have stalled after about 2.5āÆyears of growth. This slowdown suggests fewer new buyers are entering...
š Price Action: BTC Holding Near Major Support
Bitcoin recently recovered above the ~$87,500ā$88,000 zone and is consolidating just below the ~$89,000 resistance.
The bounce has kept BTC above key shortāterm supports ā including the 100āhour moving average and a bullish intraday trend line...
š What BlackRock Is Saying
š¹ BlackRock has named its spot Bitcoin ETF ā the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ā as one of its top investment themes for 2025, grouping it with traditionally safe and core assets like short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and leading tech equities.
ā The firmās ETF is...
š Market Context (Asia Open)
š Bitcoin:
BTC has been hovering around ~$88,000 in early Asian trading ā holding steady but not making a strong breakout.
This reflects a cautious sentiment, with traders watching macro cues and broader risk markets rather than crypto leading the charge.
Liquidity...
š¹ Whatās Happening Right Now
Recent data show that in Bitcoinās perpetual futures market (a derivative market with no fixed expiry), open interest (OI) has climbed from around 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC. At the same time funding rates ā the periodic payments between long and short traders ā have...
š§ The Idea: A āPainfulā Bounce
This kind of bounce is often called a bull trap or relief rally. Itās a short-term upward move inside a broader bearish or corrective trend. Its main effect isnāt to start a new bull run ā itās to trap the maximum number of traders on the wrong side.
š„ Why This...
š What the Central Bank Actually Said
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, has publicly acknowledged that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency mining may be contributing to the recent strength of the Russian ruble ā though she also stressed that itās hard to precisely quantify this...
š Fidelityās Warning: 2026 Could Be an āOff Yearā for Bitcoin
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity Investments, has been signaling that Bitcoinās recent all-time high near ~$125 kā$126 k (hit in October 2025) might mark the top for the current four-year cycle, and that...
š§ Dalioās Skeptical Stance on Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset
**Ray Dalio ā founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates ā has reiterated that he does not expect central banks to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve currency.
He argues that:
Central banks wonāt hold Bitcoin in the way they hold traditional...
š Market Overview ā RangeāBound but Choppy
The crypto market is generally stable but lacks clear directional conviction:
Bitcoin is holding near key support levels (around $87,000ā$89,000) after recent price pressure, suggesting resilience at these thresholds but no decisive breakout yet...
š Buying Pressure Has Spiked ā OnāChain Signals Rising
Recent onāchain data shows a significant increase in Bitcoin buying pressure, with exchange outflows jumping about 59% in just a couple of days ā meaning more BTC is leaving exchanges (often a sign of accumulation) rather than being put up...
š 1. Critics like Peter Schiff urge selling BTC for gold ā but thatās opinion, not a consensus
Economist and longātime gold bull Peter Schiff has repeatedly said Bitcoin could weaken while gold rallies ā even urging holders to exchange BTC for gold and silver if they want to preserve capital...
š§ Why Analysts Are Shifting Focus from Price to Structure
Instead of simply debating whether Bitcoin will reclaim higher price levels, many market analysts are paying attention to deeper structural signals ā such as demand strength, exchange flows, institutional behavior, and whether old cycle...
š What Happened
Northern Data, a German AI and dataācenter company majorityāowned by Tether, has sold its bitcoin mining subsidiary ā Peak Mining ā in a deal worth up to $200āÆmillion.
However, Financial Times reporting reveals that the buyers are companies controlled by Tether leadership ā...
š§ What the Report Says
Recent screenshots and reports circulating on social media and among Discord/Telegram crypto groups suggest internal divergence within Fundstrat Global Advisors about Bitcoinās outlook for 2026:
Bearish Base Case (Shorter Term / RiskāFirst):
Fundstratās Head of Digital...
š§ Why PostāQuantum Matters
Bitcoinās current cryptography ā based on elliptic curve signatures (ECDSA/Schnorr) ā is secure against classical computers today, but quantum computers could eventually break these cryptographic assumptions once sufficiently large, errorācorrected quantum machines...
š Recovery Underway ā But Hitting Resistance
Bitcoin has rebounded above key shortāterm levels around ~$86,800ā$87,000, and is currently trying to build on that recovery, trading above the 100āhour simple moving average ā a sign that buyers are still active.
However, the recovery runs into...
š CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Has Entered a Bear Market
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant now signals that Bitcoin is in a bear market because demand growth has slowed sharply since early October 2025 ā falling below its longāterm trend after three demand waves that had supported price earlier...
:
š Analyst Says No Bottom Yet
According to Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich, Bitcoin hasnāt likely reached a lasting bottom because fear and pessimism on social media remain unusually low ā a psychological condition that historically doesnāt align with major market lows.
š What the...
š Current Price Context
Bitcoin has been stalled around the $88,000 zone after a pullback from recent highs, reflecting a broader consolidation phase rather than panic selling. The market has been trading in a tight range as liquidity thins during the year-end season.
š Why $88,000 Could Be...
On-Chain Data Signals a Major Bitcoin Move
Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential major move, according to recent on-chain metrics. Traders and analysts are closely watching these signals to anticipate the next directional shift.
Key On-Chain Metrics to Watch
Exchange Net Flow
Net outflows...
Bitcoin vs Altcoins: Where Smart Traders Are Positioning
As the crypto market consolidates, traders are asking: should I focus on Bitcoin or rotate into altcoins? Smart money behavior often provides the clearest answer.
Market Context
Bitcoin is trading near key resistance levels, forming a...
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Breakout or Bull Trap?
Bitcoin is currently trading at a critical decision zone, where price action will likely determine the next major market direction. After a strong impulsive move, BTC has entered a high-liquidity area, increasing the risk of both a breakout and a...
š Whatās Happening with Bitcoin This Morning
Bitcoin slipped to around ~$85,000ā$86,000 in early Asian trading, extending recent weakness in risk assets. Much of this pressure is linked to equity market behavior rather than cryptoāspecific news.
Traders are watching a potential Bank of Japan...
š Precious Metals Rally: Gold & Silver Near or at Records
Gold is staying strong near allātime highs, and silver just hit a fresh record.
⢠Silver has surged above $65ā$66 per ounce, marking huge gains (~120ā130% yearātoādate) ā far outpacing many financial assets. Analysts point to robust...
š Market Positioning Snapshot
Bitcoin (BTC)
Long positions are dominating BTC derivatives markets.
Traders are showing optimism for continued upside, betting on BTC reclaiming or surpassing recent highs (~$85Kā$88K).
High long exposure can support prices in the short term, but also increase...
š Bitcoin Moves
BTC slid at the Asian open, trading near $85,000.
The pullback reflects profit-taking and cautious sentiment as investors digest broader tech market trends.
š Asian Markets Snapshot
Tech recovery leads a modest rebound in Asian equities, providing some support to risk assets...
š Bitcoin Update
BTC slipped to ~$85,000 following mixed sentiment in global markets.
Short-term price pressure is moderate, with some profit-taking after recent rallies.
š Macro & Market Context
Asian stocks steadied after a rebound in tech shares, helping risk sentiment stabilize...
š§ What Executives Are Saying
1. Concern about quantum risk is affecting investor confidence
Several industry execs and analysts argue that fear of future quantum computing attacks ā even if distant ā is weighing on Bitcoinās price because some capital is sitting on the sidelines rather than...
Pullbacks are essential for disciplined trading in both forex and crypto markets. Unlike chasing momentum, trading corrections allows traders to enter high-probability setups with better risk-reward ratios. Applying classic forex indicators to Bitcoin and altcoins provides structure in otherwise...
Crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin and altcoins, often display strong trends punctuated by sharp pullbacks, making them ideal candidates for strategies borrowed from forex trading. By applying trend identification, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, and momentum indicators, traders can...
š Strong One-Day Inflows Signal Renewed Positioning
U.S. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded *about *$457 million in net inflows on Wednesday ā the largest single-day intake in over a month.
Fidelityās Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led with roughly $391 million, while BlackRockās...
Forex traders often monitor multiple assets simultaneously to anticipate market trends, manage risk, and optimize trade timing. Crypto traders can borrow this approach by analyzing the correlation between Bitcoin, the US Dollar (USD), and Gold, creating a structured framework for strategic...
Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply and perceived store-of-value characteristics. However, understanding the correlation between Bitcoin and gold requires a nuanced approach, borrowing techniques from forex traders who analyze multi-asset relationships to anticipate...
The US Dollar (USD) is the dominant global currency, and its strength or weakness can significantly influence risk assets, including Bitcoin. Forex traders closely monitor the Dollar Index (DXY) to anticipate trends in currencies, commodities, and equities. Applying this perspective to crypto...
š Current Market Pulse
Active Wallets & Liquidity:
Onāchain metrics show the number of active Bitcoin wallets has fallen to its lowest levels since 2023, a sign that fewer participants are transacting ā often interpreted as declining engagement or a market in riskāoff mode.
This drop in...
š Bitcoin & Crypto Markets
Bitcoin dipped toward ~$86,000 as Asian markets opened softer, continuing a riskāoff tone that started with a techāled sellāoff on Wall Street overnight. Crypto often tracks broader risk sentiment, so weakness in tech stocks put pressure on BTC.
š Asian Equities &...