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  1. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Misconceptions, Myths, and Common Analytical Errors

    As gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin become increasingly discussed together, several misconceptions and analytical shortcuts have taken hold. These misunderstandings often lead to poor trading decisions and flawed long-term strategies. Clarifying what correlations do—and do not—mean is essential...
  2. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Practical Trading and Portfolio Applications

    Understanding correlations is only valuable if it can be applied in real trading and investment decisions. For traders and portfolio managers, the relationship between gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin offers practical tools for risk management, position sizing, and macro positioning. The key is...
  3. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Timeframe Dependency and Correlation Instability

    One of the most common mistakes traders make when analyzing correlations between gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin is assuming that correlations are stable and permanent. In reality, correlations are highly timeframe-dependent. What holds true on a monthly or yearly chart may completely break...
  4. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Crisis Behavior and Extreme Market Stress

    The true test of any asset’s role within the financial system emerges during extreme market stress. Crises strip away narratives and expose how assets behave when liquidity disappears, fear dominates decision-making, and capital preservation becomes the sole priority. Studying gold, the US...
  5. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Institutional Adoption and Structural Shifts

    As financial markets evolve, institutional participation plays a decisive role in reshaping asset correlations. Gold and the US dollar have long been dominated by institutional flows, central banks, and sovereign entities. Bitcoin, however, is transitioning from a retail-driven asset to one...
  6. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Inflation, Liquidity, and Store of Value Narratives

    One of the most powerful forces shaping the correlation between gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin is inflation expectations. Markets are forward-looking, and how investors anticipate inflation often matters more than the actual inflation data itself. Each of these three assets plays a distinct...
  7. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin — Risk Sentiment and Market Cycles

    While price correlations between gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin are often discussed in numerical terms, the real insight lies in understanding why these correlations shift over time. Markets are not static systems; they move in cycles driven by risk sentiment, liquidity conditions, and...
  8. black angle

    Correlation Study: Gold, USD, and Bitcoin

    In the dynamic landscape of global finance, understanding correlations between major assets is crucial for both traders and long-term investors. Among the most closely watched relationships today is that between gold, the US Dollar (USD), and Bitcoin. Each of these assets serves as a benchmark...
  9. RaKotU

    EUR/USD Decision Phase

    1️⃣ Current Context EUR/USD is trading near 1.1740–1.1750, at a critical juncture. Price is testing the upper boundary of a recent consolidation range, making it a “decision phase” for either continuation or reversal. The market is indecisive, waiting for confirmation from support, resistance...
  10. RaKotU

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD hits record highs near $66 on weak US data

    📈 Silver Price Action & Record Highs Silver (XAG/USD) recently posted all‑time highs near ~$66/oz, as weak U.S. macro data (including rising unemployment and softer retail/PMI figures) boosted safe‑haven demand for precious metals. The surge has been supported by expectations of more Federal...
  11. RaKotU

    PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0386 – Reuters estimate

    📌 Market Forecast for Today’s Fix Reuters and market participants are estimating the PBOC will set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 7.0386. This is the expected midpoint for onshore yuan trading against the U.S. dollar. 📊 What the Reference Rate Means The reference (central parity)...
  12. RaKotU

    PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0573 (vs. estimate at 7.0386)

    📌 PBOC Central Rate Set Above Estimate The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the **USD/CNY central parity rate at 7.0573 for today’s trading session. This was higher than the market estimate of ~7.0386. 📊 What This Means The central parity (reference) rate is the midpoint around which the...
  13. RaKotU

    USD/JPY weakens to near 155.00 amid BoJ rate hike bets, US data awaited

    USD/JPY weakens to near 155.00 amid BoJ rate hike bets; US data awaited USD/JPY has slipped toward 155.00, pressured by rising Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations and cautious positioning ahead of upcoming US economic data. 🔍 Key drivers BoJ rate hike bets: Market pricing reflects...
  14. RaKotU

    PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0444 – Reuters estimate

    PBOC expected to set USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0444 – Reuters estimate The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to fix today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0444, according to Reuters estimates, signaling a modestly weaker yuan than recent onshore levels. 🔍 Key points Market...
  15. RaKotU

    PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602 vs. 7.0656 previous

    PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602, down from 7.0656 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) fixed today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602, slightly stronger than yesterday’s 7.0656, signaling modest yuan appreciation in the onshore market. 🔍 Key points Reference rate movement: The...
  16. RaKotU

    PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0602 (vs. estimate at 7.0444)

    PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602, above market estimate The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) fixed today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0602, higher than the market consensus of 7.0444, signaling a slightly weaker yuan than expected in the onshore market. 🔍 Key points Reference rate vs...
  17. RaKotU

    NZD/USD weakens below 0.5800 on disappointing Chinese data, US NFP data in focus

    NZD/USD weakens below 0.5800 on disappointing Chinese data; US NFP in focus NZD/USD has slipped below the 0.5800 level, pressured by soft Chinese economic data and cautious positioning ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. 🔍 Key drivers Disappointing Chinese data: Weak...
  18. RaKotU

    USD/CAD flattens around 1.3770 ahead of delayed US NFP data

    USD/CAD flattens around 1.3770 ahead of delayed US NFP data USD/CAD is trading largely unchanged near 1.3770, with price action subdued as traders remain cautious ahead of the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Reduced liquidity and position-squaring are keeping the pair range-bound. 🔍...
  19. RaKotU

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below 100-hour SMA pivotal support near $62.50

    Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below 100-hour SMA pivotal support near $62.50 Silver has slipped below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $62.50, a level that had acted as short-term dynamic support. This break is technically significant and tilts the intraday bias to the...
  20. RaKotU

    When are the German/ Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

    📆 Timing of the HCOB Flash PMIs The flash HCOB (Hamburg Commercial Bank / S&P Global) PMI data are released early each month and give a preliminary snapshot of economic activity for Germany and the wider Eurozone: 🇩🇪 German flash HCOB PMIs are typically released around 07:30 GMT (08:30 CET)...
  21. SxxNGx

    XRP/USD Stalls Below $2.00 as ETF Demand Builds Beneath the Surface

    As of December 15, 2025, XRP/USD trades around $1.98–$2.00, repeatedly testing but failing to sustain a clean break above the psychological $2.00 level. ### Current Price Situation The pair has been range-bound for weeks, with buyers defending dips near $1.96–$1.98 while sellers cap rallies at...
  22. RaKotU

    USD/JPY: Yen Carry Trade Back in Focus as BoJ Rate Hike Looms

    USD/JPY: Yen Carry Trade Back in Focus as BoJ Rate Hike Looms Market theme: JPY strength and potential policy shift reshape carry trades USD/JPY is attracting attention as Japan’s potential rate hike increases the appeal of yen-denominated assets and may trigger adjustments in carry trade...
  23. RaKotU

    EUR/USD fluctuates near highs in cautious markets ahead of a busy week

    EUR/USD Fluctuates Near Highs Ahead of a Busy Week Market theme: Cautious positioning ahead of key macro data and central bank events EUR/USD is trading near recent highs, with investors taking a measured approach as they anticipate a week packed with economic releases and central bank...
  24. RaKotU

    USD/CAD keeps on falling on divergent market pricing: focus on Canada CPI and US NFP now

    USD/CAD Keeps Falling on Divergent Market Pricing — Focus Shifts to Canada CPI & US NFP Market theme: Policy divergence + data dependency USD/CAD remains under downward pressure, driven by divergent market pricing between the U.S. and Canada. Traders are increasingly positioning for relative CAD...
  25. RaKotU

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits Record Close Resistance- High-Stakes Year-End Breakout Looms

    📌 Gold at Critical Resistance — Breakout in Play Gold hit record closing resistance recently, with bulls pushing prices toward all-time highs and setting up a high-stakes breakout scenario into year-end. A decisive close above key resistance around the all-time high (~$4,381) would signal a...
    • RaKotU
    • Thread
    • breakout gold hits price record resistance usd xau xau/usd
    • Replies: 0
    • Forum: Analysis & Ideas
  26. RaKotU

    Euro Forecast: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Breakout, EUR/GBP Recovery

    📈 EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Bias with Key Levels in Focus Short-term sentiment: EUR/USD recently re-tested a major chart level, indicating renewed Euro strength against the U.S. dollar. Price action is carving out potential breakout setups on technical charts. Today’s technical analysis still...
  27. RaKotU

    NZD/USD: Likely to consolidate between 0.5760 and 0.5790 – UOB Group

    NZD/USD Technical Analysis UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia indicated in a recent update that NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5760 and 0.5790. This reflects a neutral short-term stance amid balanced momentum, with the pair expected to trade sideways unless key...
  28. SxxNGx

    ETH/USD Breaks Above $3,000 as Fusaka Upgrade Ignites Scalability Rally

    Break Above $3,000 Ignited by Fusaka Upgrade Scalability Boost Ethereum is currently trading around $3,100–$3,150 USD, consolidating above the key $3,000 psychological level after a strong rebound driven by the successful activation of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3, 2025. #### Headline...
    • SxxNGx
    • Thread
    • 000 563 above as eth rally upgrade usd ⚫️ 3
    • Replies: 0
    • Forum: Analysis & Ideas
  29. RaKotU

    USD/CAD rejection at 1.4150 sparks sharp technical pullback – Société Générale

    Société Générale analysts highlighted on December 10, 2025, that USD/CAD's rejection from the multi-month trendline resistance near 1.4150 sparked a sharp technical pullback, with the pair breaking below its ascending channel and the 200-day moving average, signaling potential for further...
  30. RaKotU

    EUR/USD pressured by rising US rates, eyes 1.1585/90 support – ING

    ING FX analyst Chris Turner noted on December 10, 2025 (pre-FOMC), that EUR/USD was pressured by rising US rates amid FOMC anticipation, with near-term support eyed at 1.1585/90. This reflected caution on higher yields capping euro gains, alongside eurozone fiscal/geopolitical factors (e.g...
    • RaKotU
    • Thread
    • 18 512 eur eyes ing rates support usd ⚫️ 1
    • Replies: 0
    • Forum: Analysis & Ideas
  31. RaKotU

    USD/JPY: Any advance may not reach 157.20 – UOB Group

    UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia commented on December 10, 2025, that while USD/JPY could edge higher in the near term, any advance may not reach the major resistance at 157.20. They highlighted overbought short-term conditions but noted potential for mild upside before...
  32. RaKotU

    USD/CNH: Likely to trade with a downward bias – UOB Group

    UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia noted on December 10, 2025, that USD/CNH is likely to trade with a downward bias, though unlikely to break clearly below 7.0540 in the near term. Longer-term, the outlook remains negative, with the next key level at 7.0400. Current Status: The...
  33. RaKotU

    USD/CAD holds above 1.3800 ahead of Fed decision – BBH

    Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analysts noted on December 10, 2025 (pre-FOMC and BoC decisions) that USD/CAD was holding firmer above key support at 1.3800 amid market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. They highlighted CAD tailwinds from swaps pricing a potential 25 bps BoC...
  34. RaKotU

    GBP/USD firms as dovish repricing for Fed and BoE boosts upside momentum

    GBP/USD has firmed notably in recent sessions, supported by dovish repricing of both Fed and BoE paths post the December 10 FOMC rate cut (25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%). Markets have focused on the Fed's cautious but easing-leaning guidance (reserve purchases, balanced risks) while pricing in potential...
  35. RaKotU

    EUR/USD hits 8-week high near 1.1700 propelled by Fed’s dovish cut

    EUR/USD has surged to an 8-week high near the 1.1700 handle, propelled by the Federal Reserve's December 10, 2025 "dovish cut" (25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%). Markets interpreted the guidance—emphasizing the "extent and timing" of future adjustments and shift to maintaining ample reserves—as signaling...
  36. RaKotU

    GBP/USD surges after Fed rate cut, traders focus on Powell's next steps

    GBP/USD surged post the Federal Reserve's December 10, 2025 rate cut (25 bps to 3.50%-3.75%), initially pushing from pre-decision lows near 1.3326 to highs around 1.3400, reflecting broader USD selling. Traders focused on Chair Powell's press conference, where he emphasized a data-dependent...
  37. RaKotU

    EUR/USD remains firm with US Jobless Claims data on tap

    EUR/USD has shown remarkable firmness over the weekend (markets closed December 13-14), with futures pointing to prices holding steady around 1.1730–1.1740. This resilience persists amid broader USD weakness following the December 10 FOMC rate cut and hawkish dot plot revisions, with markets now...
  38. RaKotU

    USD is moving lower the day after the FOMC decision. What are the technicals forecasting?

    The Federal Reserve's December 10, 2025 FOMC delivered a 25 basis point rate cut (to 3.50%-3.75%), as expected, but adopted a more hawkish tone with the dot plot signaling only one additional cut in 2026. Despite this, markets focused on the immediate easing and Powell's comments ruling out...
  39. RaKotU

    Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Faces Payrolls, BoJ and Fed Independence Risk

    Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Faces Payrolls, BoJ and Fed Independence Risk The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure, with USD/JPY consolidating around 155.30–155.80 after a post-Fed dovish dip and modest recovery. Volatility is elevated ahead of a data-heavy week, compounded by political...
  40. RaKotU

    GBP/USD Approaches Local High, Bolstered by BoE Stance

    📈 GBP/USD Near Recent Highs **GBP/USD has climbed to around 1.3367, settling near its highest level since late October. Sterling is showing renewed strength after consolidating gains recently. A weaker U.S. dollar following the Fed’s recent dovish shift has helped support the pair’s advance. 🏦...
  41. RaKotU

    USD/INR revisits all-time high amid US-India trade deal uncertainty

    ### USD/INR Exchange Rate Update: December 11, 2025 The USD/INR pair has surged to a fresh all-time high, touching 90.406 during Thursday's Asian session—up 0.71% from the previous close of 89.773 and marking the highest level since records began in 1973. This extends a volatile uptrend, with...
  42. RaKotU

    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drifts higher above $4,200 as Fed delivers expected cut

    ### Gold Price (XAU/USD) Update: December 11, 2025 XAU/USD is extending its upside momentum above the $4,200 psychological level during Thursday's early Asian session, trading around $4,217—up 0.16% from the previous close of $4,228.55 and building on Wednesday's post-Fed rally. The precious...
    • RaKotU
    • Thread
    • 67 920 above as gold higher price usd xau xau/usd ⚫️ 4
    • Replies: 0
    • Forum: Analysis & Ideas
  43. RaKotU

    NZD/USD trades above 0.5800, over two-month top amid dovish Fed-inspired USD weakness

    ### NZD/USD Exchange Rate Update: December 11, 2025 The NZD/USD pair is maintaining gains above the 0.5800 threshold during Thursday's Asian session, trading around 0.5815—up 0.48% from the prior close and near a two-month high of 0.5820 touched on Wednesday. This extends a five-session winning...
  44. RaKotU

    AUD/USD remains depressed after mixed Aussie jobs data; holds above mid-0.6600s

    ### AUD/USD Exchange Rate Update: December 11, 2025 The AUD/USD pair is extending its subdued tone during Thursday's Asian session, trading around 0.6640—down 0.03% from the prior close and modestly off Wednesday's two-month highs near 0.6680. The pair remains above the mid-0.6600s amid mixed...
  45. RaKotU

    PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0686 vs. 7.0753 previous

    ### USD/CNY Exchange Rate Update: December 11, 2025 The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the daily USD/CNY central parity rate (reference rate) at 7.0686 for Thursday's trading session, a notable strengthening from the previous fix of 7.0753—marking a 0.095% appreciation of the yuan. This...
  46. RaKotU

    USD/INR revisits all-time high amid US-India trade deal uncertainty

    🔎 Why USD/INR Could Be Rising: Factors & Trade‑Deal Uncertainty • Risk / safe‑haven demand and capital flows When there is uncertainty around a major trade agreement — such as a potential U.S.–India trade deal — investors tend to become more risk‑averse. That can reduce demand for...
  47. RaKotU

    When is the SNB’s interest rate decision and how could it affect USD/CHF?

    📅 When is the SNB’s next interest‑rate decision The SNB typically meets about 6–8 times per year, roughly every six to eight weeks. There isn’t always a fixed calendar (compared to e.g. the U.S. Fed), but markets roughly expect decisions early in each quarter and mid‑quarter. As of now there is...
  48. black angle

    The Digital Dollar and Its Potential to Strengthen USD Reserve Status

    The U.S. dollar has long held the position of the world’s primary reserve currency, underpinned by global trade, central bank holdings, and international confidence. However, the rise of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and competing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has introduced new...
  49. black angle

    The Digital Dollar and Its Potential to Strengthen USD Dominance

    The U.S. dollar has long been the backbone of global finance, dominating trade, reserves, and currency markets. However, the rise of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and competing CBDCs, like China’s Digital Yuan, has introduced potential challenges to this dominance. The Digital Dollar, a central...
  50. black angle

    Why the Digital Dollar Could Strengthen USD Dominance in the Long Run

    The U.S. dollar is already the world’s most powerful currency—used in over 80% of global trade, held as the majority of global reserves, and central to global energy markets. But crypto’s rise challenged this dominance in subtle yet important ways. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC allowed “digital...
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